Tuesday, June 19, 2007

When To Buy And Sell Stocks (Shares)







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The mechanism of buying and selling is quite easy. It is as easy as pressing a button in front of your computer screen. The question of when investors should buy and sell warrant a more detailed analysis.

When to sell:

Ideally, we should sell when a stock reaches its fair value. There are 9 other reasons to sell but I won't cover it here. So, what is a stock's fair value? I have covered this plenty of time. But, in general, a stock reaches its fair value when it is yielding 3% above the current free risk interest rate. I am using 10 year treasury bond as a proxy for free risk interest rate. Currently, the 10 year bond is yielding 4.46%. Fair value of a stock is therefore when it is yielding 7.46%. Inverting yield, we then got the widely used Price Earning Ratio. Yield of 7.46% corresponds to P/E ratio of 13.4

When to buy:

This is an easier question to answer. We, of course, should buy stock lower than we sell. If we sell the stock at a P/E ratio of 13.4, then we should buy it when the P/E ratio is less than 13.4. How much lower ? It depends on how much return you aim for. If, say, you are aiming for 50% return, then your buying price is when the stock is trading at a P/E of 8.93. If you are aiming for a 34% return, then your buying price is at a P/E of 10.

In short, we should buy at a P/E of 8.93 and then sell at a P/E of 13.4, correct? Yes, but with a lot of caveats. I've covered those caveats in 5 common misuse of P/E ratio. To emphasize, the P/E ratio used here is not trailing P/E ratio, does not ignore the value of cash in the balance sheet, does not ignore one-time event and does not ignore the change in interest rate. At this point, I am ignoring earning growth simply because the fair value calculation is for a company with 0% growth.

You might be wondering where you might find stocks that are trading at a P/E of 13, let alone 8.93. Here is a few candidates to help you getting started. Seagate Technology (STX) has a forward P/E of 7.5 and $ 2.30 per share of net cash in the balance sheet. Western Digital Corporation (WDC) has a forward P/E of 9.75 with $ 2.65 per share of net cash. OmniVision Technologies Inc. (OVTI) is trading at a forward P/E of 10.3 with $ 5.30 per share of net cash. Magna International (MGA) is trading at a forward P/E of 9.72 with $ 4.58 per share of net cash.

Please note that this is not a buy/sell recommendation. You would do very well if you do your own homework.

Facts of Day Trading

Are you thinking of entering the fast-paced world of day trading? Arm yourselves with the information from this fact sheet on day trading.

What is day trading?


Day trading is an investment tactic that does online daily stock trading with a relatively short investment. Those who do day trading usually buy and sell securities during the same market day and, as a general rule, do not hold stocks overnight. Many day traders make dozens of trades every market day hoping to capture profits that arise from small intraday price fluctuations..

How is day trading different from swing trading?

Day trading relatively holds the stock for only the day. After the stock market closes, a day trader has no stock in his hands. Swing trading holds a stock for at least a few days, waiting out for the best price before dumping it back to the market. Day trading is much more stressful and requires guts and a keen business sense. Once you get good at day trading, you can earn up to $50,000 from your initial investment..

How much capital would you need for day trading?

You need an investment equivalent to buy 1000 stocks. That is roughly around $20,000. Because the chances are small that you will find a marketable stock with a price of under $20, this is enough to get your day trading underway. However, you must remember that this is a 100% risk capital so do not worry too much if you lose this amount very early..

What are the general rules for day trading?

  • Always trade with the trend.
  • Cut losses short
  • Never get emotionally involved in your trades.

What are the most suitable stocks to trade for day trading?

It is advisable to trade high volume stocks. Go with the trend with the popular stocks available. It'll be easier for you to sell those stocks at the end of the day trading

How does a usual day trading transaction occur?

For example, at 10:00 AM a day trader might buy 1000 shares of stock XYZ just as the price begins to rise on good news, then sell it at 10:04 AM when it's up by 1/2 ($0.50). The day trader makes $500, minus commission. With today's cheap commissions of $29.95 or less per trade, that's a quick $440.10 or better, excluding taxes..

Most people who deal with day trading spend all of their time in front of the computer, watching the slightest change in the stock price. As the prices go up and down, the day trader must be alert as to when to sell his stock or wait for the moment to hold on it. This can be a very stressful lifestyle as a mere second could mean an increase of half the stock price and missing that moment for any person engaging in day trading could mean a loss on his investment..

Day trading is not a get rich scheme. It is serious business where you could lose everything within minutes because of wrong information. Before jumping into day trading, remember to do your homework first. Go to seminars on day trading, use simulations if possible and practice reading market indicators. To be a successful day trader, don't just need luck. Knowledge and experience counts. Welcome to the world of stock markets and investments! .

How Buying on Margin Works

If you pay attention to finance and investment news, you might hear something from time to time about buying on margin. It may sound intriguing, being able to purchase large amounts of stocks or other securities without having to pay the full cost of them… in most cases, though, that's all of the information that is given and it leaves you to wonder exactly how buying on margin works. If you are in this situation, then the information provided below is designed to give you more details on margin trading and may help you to determine whether or not buying on margin is right for you.

Should you decide to try your hand at margin trading, do so with care… after all, there's a lot of money that can be made, but trading on margin without realizing how and what you should be doing can also cost you quite a bit of money.

A Definition of Buying on Margin

Before getting into the hows and whys of margin trading, it's important that you realize exactly what buying on margin really is. In essence, buying on margin is like getting a loan from your stock broker that will enable you to purchase larger amounts of stocks and securities than you might actually be able to afford at that moment.

The funds that you do pay go into a special type of brokerage account known as a margin account, and act as a deposit toward the total price of the purchase. The remainder of the price must be paid to the broker, either when you sell the stocks or after a predetermined interval.

Requirements for a Margin Purchase

Because of the specialized type of purchase that margin trading requires, you have to set up your margin account before being able to make any margin trades. Though the laws regarding buying on margin may vary from country to country, in most cases the setting up of a margin account requires that the brokerage has your signature on file authorizing them to set up the account.

A minimum deposit is also required for a margin account, which can be in the thousands… for many brokerages, however, they instead require that at least 50% of the value of the intended purchase is used as the deposit for the margin account though some may require as high as 60% to 75% for a first purchase.

The purchase made when buying on margin utilizes the value of your deposit as well as an additional amount which is borrowed from the broker… for experienced traders this can be up to 50%, though you can choose to borrow less for any trade.

There may also be additional rules concerning which stocks and securities can be purchased, as well as a minimum price for any individual stock share.

As with any loan, money borrowed for a purchase on margin must be repaid in a timely manner. Usually, the money is recovered when the purchased stocks or securities are sold… the portion that was borrowed from the brokerage firm is repaid first, and the remainder then goes to the shareholder. In the case of long-term investments that are purchased on margin, however, payments may be required on regular intervals to maintain the margin loan.

Should you not make the required deposits to maintain the margin and pay down the loan, the broker may require you to sell your stock so that they can reclaim their money.

Learn Forex Trading System

Forex Trading Guide

Like many people I am sure you are interested to know more about Forex trading. To put it bluntly Forex trading can be either one the best ways to make or lose LOTS of money. Only those who take the Forex market seriously will be able to make money with it in the long term.

The Forex trading market is beyond a doubt the world̢۪s largest market where all exchanges happen instantaneously. Thus, trades are a key challenge for even the most knowledgeable Forex bankers and traders. They have to learn and consider many factors before performing even a single trade.

At first when currencies began to be traded openly, only large banks were allowed to perform trades. These days, due to the advent of internet trading and margin accounts almost anybody can begin Forex trading. This in turn, has added to the liquidity of the Forex market, and has resulted in a huge increase in the number of individuals who are now active in the market.

So, does this mean it is easy to earn money through Forex trading? To answer this we must consider a few things.

Some data by Forex brokers seems to suggest that 90 percent of traders end up of losing their capital, 5 percent of traders have been able to break even and only 5 percent of them attain steady beneficial results. Thus, it seems that trading successfully is no simple task.

However, if you can learn to be among the 5 percent who make consistent money you can do extremely well by using Forex trading. To help you in this end I have listed five key ways to improve your odds dramatically of making money in the Forex market.

1. Education

Successful traders are knowledgeable about the Forex market. They have chosen to educate themselves about every single vital detail of Forex trading. The best traders know that every trade that they perform is an opportunity to learn something new.

2. Forex Trading System

All of the profitable traders have a Forex trading system or strategy. Furthermore, they have the will power to stick strictly to that system, because the best traders know that by sticking with their system they stand a far greater chance of earning money.

3. Price Behavior

Knowledgeable and successful traders also include price behavior in their systems. They have learned that prices can change quickly and suddenly but are prepared to deal with those situations when they arrive.


4. Trading Psychology


First-rate traders are aware of psychological issues that affect the choices of other traders make when Forex trading. They know that people do not always act rationally, and as a result this can alter the expected outcome of a trade. This can help them both when deciding to enter into a trade or when to exit.


5. Money Management


This is far and away the most important factor that will determine whether or not you become a successful trader. Averting the hazard of financial ruin is the main concern of all top traders. This means both adequately funding your trading account (only with money you can afford to live without of course) and never entering into trades that can potentially wipe out all of your assets. Better to start trading small and always use stop-loss orders to guarantee that your first trades are not also your last.

This is by no means an exhaustive list of everything you need to know but it outlines some of the areas you need to consider before making even that first trade. Now you know that it is not easy to earn money in the Forex market, however it is achievable.

However, success does not happen overnight and anyone promising you that it can is trying to sell you snake oil. It is an ongoing processes not something you pick up in a weekend. Trading success depends on the trader, and how hard you are willing to work to achieve your Forex trading goals.

Also, remember to try to have some fun. The clearest sign that Forex trading is not for you is if you find the prospect of learning about how the Forex market works boring or dull. If this is the case you won̢۪t stick with it long enough to make money and you will be among the 90 percent who fail. Just remember these three important things: be disciplined in your trading habits, manager your money wisely and enjoy the experience of Forex trading.

Forex Broker Advice

Do you want to make more money? Investing money is what you should be looking to do. Investing money in Forex broker advice is going to help you build your nest egg, build your wealth and it only takes a few minutes of your times. Using Forex broker advice, you are going to be able to find an investment that will make your money grow faster than a savings account.

A Forex account is an investment in the foreign exchange market. Forex broker advice is going to be all the advice you need about how to get started, where you can invest your money, when you should start investing in Forex systems.

Following your Forex broker advice you will be able to earn interest on the money you invest. You will find it easily to build a retirement plan, and you will be investing in companies that you can research so you always know where your money is going to be used. Forex broker advice is going to be all about how much money you should invest, why you should consider Forex investing instead of stocks, and Forex broker advice is going to be based on solid business decisions that will help you learn the foreign investing world.

Your Forex broker advice is going to be the best advice you will get about the foreign markets. There are so many changes in the market every day and a broker is going to be more apt to read up and be able to tell you where you should invest, and when to pull your money to put it somewhere else. Some people do not like to listen to Forex broker advice, and will like to learn the ropes on their own. That is ok too, but you should know that it would be difficult to learn all the things that a broker can do for you in the Forex market.

To get involved with the Forex market you first want to find a broker. Not all stockbrokers are going to be brokers involved in the Forex markets. Forex broker advice will be found with those companies that deal in foreign markets, such as larger banks, larger investment companies, not many small investment companies actually deal with Forex systems, or have Forex broker advice to offer investors. Start now by reading more about where you can find a Forex systems broker, and then determine which company you want to deal with. From there, you can get involved in making a new nest egg for your family, your retirement or even both!

Why is FOREX trading so popular?

Because you can trade from anywhere. From your kitchen table, bedroom, garage or from the nearest Starbucks coffeehouse ( most of them have wireless Internet connection).

If you have or like to travel, take your laptop with you and you can trade the FOREX anywhere in the world where you have an Internet connection.

When you want to start trading the Forex Market nobody is asking you for a diploma, a formal license or a proof of how many hours you have spent studying the Foreign Exchange Market and/or Banking Industry.

FOREX Trading is Economical and Start-up Costs are Low! You can open an account to trade Forex with as little as US$ 200 at he most brokerage firms. I personally do recommend Fenix Capital Management, LLC, which offers a state of art Trading platform, that allows you to place orders directly by clicking on the chart.

The Main Benefits of Trading the FX Spot Market are:

  • YOU don't pay commissions or fees!
  • YOU can trade 24-hours a day !
  • YOU can trade up to 400:1 Leverage !
  • YOU can have FREE Streaming executable Price quotes and live charts!

It is important to know the differences between cash FOREX (SPOT FX) and currency futures.

  • In currency futures, the contract size is predetermined.
  • With FOREX (SPOT FX), you may trade electronically any desired amount, up to $10 Million USD.
  • The futures market closes at the end of the business day (similar to the stock market).If important data is released overseas while the U.S. futures markets is closed, the next day's opening might sustain large gaps with potential for large losses if thedirection of the move is against your position.
  • The Spot FOREX market runs continuously on a 24-hour basis from 7:00 am New Zealand time Monday morning to 5:00 pm New York Time Friday evening.
  • Dealers in every major FX trading center (Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong/Singapore, London, Geneva and New York/Toronto) ensure a smooth transaction as liquidity migrates from one time zone to the next.
  • Furthermore, currency futures trade in non-USD denominated currency amounts only, whereas in spot FOREX, an investor can trade in almost any currency denomination, or in the more conventionally quoted USD amounts.
  • The currency futures pit, even during Regular IMM (International Money Market) hours suffers from sporadic lulls in liquidity and constant price gaps.
  • The spot FOREX market offers constant liquidity and market depth much more consistently than Futures.
  • With IMM futures one is limited in the currency pairs he can trade. Most currency futures are traded only versus the USD.
  • With spot FOREX, you may trade foreign currencies vs. USD or vs. each other on a 'cross' basis, for example: EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, EUR/GBP and AUD/NZD
  • More and more well informed investor and entrepreneurs are diversifying their traditional investments like stocks, bonds & commodities with foreign currency because of the following reasons: (will be continued)

RISK WARNING:

Risks of currency trading: Margined currency trading is an extremely risky form of investment and is only suitable for individuals and institutions capable of handling the potential losses it entails. An account with an broker allows you to trade foreign currencies on a highly leveraged basis (up to about 400 times your account equity).

The funds in an account that is trading at maximum leverage may be completely lost if the position(s) held in the account experiences even a one percent swing in value, given the possibility of losing one's entire investment. Speculation in the foreign exchange market should only be conducted with risk capital funds that, if lost, will not significantly affect the investors financial well-being.

Investing in the Currency Exchange

An often-overlooked form of investment is the act of investing in money directly… this is often done via the currency exchange, and can take a bit of skill and luck to get the hang of. Once you've gotten used to the intricacies of the of the currency exchange, however, you might find that it is one of the more interactive and lucrative forms of investment. Unlike most traditional investments, investments made in the currency exchange are usually short-term and may involve a fast turnaround.

The goal of currency exchange investment is to convert one currency to another during a period of decreased value, and then as the value of that currency rises to convert it either back to your original currency or to another where the same process can be repeated.

Intricacies of the Currency Exchange

One of the main tricks to the currency exchange is that the value of money all over the world is constantly in a state of flux. Each world currency is constantly changing in value in relation to all of the others, and by carefully examining the values it is possible to convert back and forth among these currencies to receive the maximum return on your \initial investment. Currency exchange investing isn't a fool-proof investment strategy and it's entirely possible to lose money in the process, but for individuals who are looking for a potentially high-yield investment opportunity with a manageable risk, currency investment can be just the thing.

Of course, one of the most common ways to play the values of the currency exchange is to visit a local moneychanger or bank to convert currency directly from one currency to another. Unfortunately, any exchange fees that may be charged can kill the profit to be earned from the exchanges. By choosing a good broker that deals in multiple exchanges, you might find yourself better served by investing directly into the international currency exchange instead of doing the exchanges yourself.

Successful Exchanges

A variety of things can happen when investing in currencies… the value of one can drop while the other rises, both currencies can rise at the same time, or the value of the two currencies might stay exactly where they are which can be frustrating after planning your exchange. Luckily, there is almost always a way out for when two currencies are stalled at a specific value… after all, the currencies of the entire world are in the same state of constant flux so it's usually possible to find another currency to exchange the one that has stalled at the same rate.

Getting the most out of the currency exchange means staying on top of economic trends… which means researching news that could affect the economy (and through it the currency) of the nations through which you're planning your exchange. Once you know what to look for and what factors tend to affect the economy, however, it can be quite easy to keep up with trends and possibly to gain inspiration for new exchanges that could become quite profitable.

When Currencies Go Bad

Of course, not all currency exchanges are going to end well. Economic collapse, financial turmoil, and social unrest can make the value of otherwise-secure currencies begin to fall before you have a chance to exchange the currencies that you've recently traded. Recovery can be made, but in most cases it involves a number of successive trades that may or may not show much improvement. There are risks for any investment, and like all investments you can also choose to simply wait and see if the value recovers.